"Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning" by Andrea Mazzon (Postdoc at LM University of Munich)

Event Date: 

Monday, November 21, 2022 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Event Location: 

  • Sobel room (SH 5607F)

We employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model-independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical experiments within a wide range of models and apply it to market data of tech stocks in order to assess if asset price bubbles are present. Under a given condition on the pricing of call options under asset price bubbles, we provide a theoretical foundation of our approach for positive and continuous stochastic processes. When such a condition is not satisfied, we focus on local volatility models. To this purpose, we give a new necessary and sufficient condition for a process with time-dependent local volatility function to be a strict local martingale. This is a joint work with Francesca Biagini, Lukas Gonon and Thilo Meyer-Brandis.